The Coffee Price Surge of 2025: A Brewing Crisis for Coffee Lovers
Coffee lovers worldwide are facing a brewing crisis in 2025, as the cost of their favorite beverage skyrockets. The international price of coffee beans has reached unprecedented levels, driven by a combination of climate change and economic pressures.
In December 2024, the price of Arabica coffee soared to $3.47 per pound, the highest it has been since 1977. Meanwhile, Robusta, known for its robust flavor and adaptability to varying climates, nearly doubled in price compared to the previous year. Forecasts for 2025 suggest that coffee prices will climb even higher, reaching levels unseen in recent memory.
According to Statista, Arabica coffee, regarded as the finest variety, sold for $2.93 per kilogram in 2018. By 2025, its price is expected to rise to $4.35 per kilogram. Similarly, the price of Robusta, which was $1.87 per kilogram in 2018, is forecasted to hit $2.80. These rising costs will inevitably impact the price of coffee beverages in cafes worldwide, forcing many to reconsider their morning coffee rituals.
Coffee Costs in Italy: A Tradition Under Pressure
In Italy, coffee is more than a drink—it is a cherished tradition. Italians consume around 6 billion cups of coffee annually, with total spending amounting to 7.26 billion euros per year. However, the average price of a cup has risen significantly.
Currently, a single espresso in Italy costs, on average, 1.21 euros—an 18.1% increase over the last three years. Prices are even higher in certain cities, with Bolzano leading at 1.38 euros per cup, followed by Trento (1.35 euros) and Pescara (1.34 euros). On the other hand, Catanzaro offers the cheapest espresso at 1 euro, while in Rome, the average cost is 1.12 euros.
The days of the 1-euro espresso are fading, and some analysts predict that the cost could double to 2 euros in 2025, driven by supply chain disruptions and rising production costs.
Why Are Coffee Prices Rising?
The root cause of the coffee price surge lies in climate change. As reported by Climate.gov, coffee cultivation thrives under specific conditions: tropical climates ranging from cool to warm, nutrient-rich soils, and minimal pest interference. Unfortunately, the world’s prime coffee-growing regions are experiencing extreme weather events that jeopardize production.
In Brazil, the largest coffee producer globally, a severe drought during the summer of 2024 devastated the harvest. This damage extended beyond the immediate harvest season, affecting future yields. Similarly, Vietnam, the top Robusta-producing nation, experienced a combination of drought and torrential rains that destroyed much of its coffee reserves.
A 2024 study in Communications Earth & Environment projected that climate change could increase global food prices by 0.9% to 3.2% over the next decade, with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impact. Giuseppe Lavazza, president of the Lavazza Group, underscored the gravity of the situation in an interview with the Financial Times:
“The coffee supply chain is dramatically under pressure […] Climate change has impacted production in the world’s main Robusta-producing countries, especially Vietnam and Indonesia, significantly reducing the availability of this variety.”
Coffee Culture Endures
Despite these challenges, coffee remains an integral part of daily life in many cultures, particularly in Italy. While prices may rise, the tradition of enjoying a well-brewed espresso persists, even in times of economic and environmental adversity.
In 2025, coffee drinkers may face higher costs, but the cultural significance of their morning cup remains irreplaceable—a testament to resilience in the face of global challenges.
